Bregman is hitting .302 with 16 homers on the season and drew a favorable fade against Sugano, who’s in the fifth percentile for expected ERA and has yielded 21 HRs in 23 outings. Bregman has hit .333 with 2 HR in the last two weeks, with most homers coming against right-handed pitching, setting up a prime Tuesday outing.

Bregman’s hot stretch is highlighted as a value play for Friday with over 1.5 total bases projected around 2.1 on average, supported by recent multi-hit games and a favorable projection against the Marlins. His plate discipline and power have created a strong DFS ceiling across multiple formats.

Bregman homered against his former team in a high-profile display, underscoring his continued offensive impact for Houston. His ability to drive the ball and create counting stats remains a focal point for Astros fans and fantasy managers who rely on steady RBIs and power, especially in big-game situations.

Bregman’s +460 odds reflect a favorable setup with Walker Buehler’s struggles in 2025 and a team-leading slugging percentage of .549. He’s already posted 16 homers in 75 games, making him a prime value bet for power upside tonight as part of a Houston lineup that can capitalize on a rough opposing pitcher.

Bregman’s role as a volume producer in the Astros’ lineup anchors the offense even as other pieces shift. His presence underscores a stable core that can carry productive weeks when pitching matchups tilt in Houston’s favor. His performance remains a key barometer for lineup depth and fantasy upside in Houston-heavy builds.